Yesterday , I did a simple rough calculation about General Motors to attempt to get at how much manufacturing job loss one could attribute to overseas competition versus automation and productiveness increases. Varied commenters objected that my assumptions had been too simplistic, particularly in neglecting the domestic content material in overseas autos and the importance of shifts within the provide chain over time.
Complicating your exercise much more is the fact that folks are likely to keep their cars longer these days than they used to. This is largely as a result of quality has gone up, reducing the frequency needed to purchase a new car. I think this has way more to do with the declining share of GDP devoted to auto purchases than any of the opposite elements you talked about.
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